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How to Read the Exit Polls
The DrudgeReport presents a McCain a memo on how to accurately interpret the exit polls tomorrow evening. In short:
1. Historically, exit polls have tended to overstate the Democratic vote.
2. The exit polls are likely to overstate the Obama vote because Obama voters are more likely to participate in the exit poll.3. The exit polls have tended to skew most Democratic in years where there is high turnout and high vote interest like in 1992 and 2004.
4. It is not just the national exit poll that skews Democratic, but each of the state exit polls also suffers from the same Democratic leanings.
5. The results of the exit polls are also influenced by the demographics of the voters who conduct the exit polls.
Whether this is the Dukakis Effect, the Bradley Effect, or what it is certainly something to keep in mind. If they have not already done it so far, we should certainly not let the media count the votes.
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