Dartblog

About six months ago, over lots of margaritas, somewhere in midtown Manhattan where the sidewalk calved into a gross Mex bar, I told my friends, a little rudely, that John McCain would win the presidency. Not one of these people believed a word I said; each was a very reasonable, totally normal person; each intends, I think, on voting for John McCain, though none is as conservative as me. The prediction was that Sen. McCain would not once be seen as winning in the polls, but would capture a large majority of ‘indies’—those who say they have not decided between the two men, and continue to say this until election day. This year, indies represent between 7% and 9% of likely voters. That’s more than in most years. And this year, that means nothing more than that nine percent of likely voters—far, far more than any possible spread between the candidates’ hardened acolytes—are not yet sold on Barack Obama.

Since by now the atmosphere has been so scorched that the Obama electorate is limned as those who enjoy music, hope, Saturday Night Live, and free money, it seems improbable that these skeptics are going to convert.

I have no idea how this translates to the state-by-state game, but it seems as though there is a shot for McCain, among these undecided voters. They could shake out in a big way for the reliable, trustworthy, well-known moderate. At least, that stands to reason. But then, if we’ve lost Tom Smith, then where are we?

ZAK Adds: I was going to post about this myself, but I agree with Joe’s analysis. We have already had months of constant media hype over Barack Obama’s inspiring personal story. If voters have not been taken in and are still giving thoughtful consideration to the issues, I think this bodes very well indeed for John McCain.