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Wednesday, December 14, 2005

National Survey of Iraq—November 2005

A massive on-the-ground survey of regular Iraqis was conducted in November by Oxford Research International. Commissioning the poll were ABC News, the BBC, Germany’s Der Spiegel magazine, Japan’s NHK, and Time magazine. In the BBC summation, it is stated in the second paragraph that “The findings are in line with the kind of arguments currently being deployed by President George W Bush.” Coming at a time when folks in the media are finally talking about Iraq turning the corner—as it has been for a good long while—this could drop a lot of weight onto the ‘Iraq Good’ side of the scales. The PDF is here. I’ll round up some of the numbers which seem most important. 61% of Iraqis say that the government is doing “quite a good” or a “very good” job. That’s a number rarely heard of in Washington, DC., where Congress’ numbers are routinely below fifty percent.

But far more significant is the fact that Iraqs, through this poll, have reported decisively on the ground situation. 70% say their life is the same or better than last Spring. 64% say that their life will be better in one year. Only 11% said that they expect Iraq to be any worse off in one year.

Iraqis were also asked, “What is the single biggest problem you are facing in your life these days?” The responses were astounding. The most common problem was “lack of stability,” with 16% citing that as their life’s biggest obstacle. Next came a 10.8% jobless rate—a bit better than Germany’s latest numbers. After stability and employment came poor public services—Iraqis are peeved at intermittent electricity failures and poor water service. The fourth most common life problem was “personal problems”, with 4.9%. Then housing troubles. Then “poor living standards,” then economic woes, which 2.9% of Iraqis identified as their life’s biggest problem.

Are you saying to yourself, something’s wrong here? You should be, because I haven’t yet mentioned terrorism. 2.2% of Iraqis consider terrorism to be their biggest problem, below all of the aforementioned. And below terrorism, the next most common complaint is “academic problems”.

Asked which should receive the highest priority for Iraq and its public servants, a strong majority, as in America, point to the establishment of solid security. Asked which should not be a priority at all, most Iraqis chose “Dealing with the members of the government before the war in 2003.” In second place: “Getting US and other occupation forces out of Iraq”.

Asked who has contributed most in helping the reconstruction of post-war Iraq, Iraqis understandably pointed to themselves. Then came the Americans, then the Kurds, Coalition forces, and foreign businesses. The United Nations ranked 11th, with 0.6% of Iraqis saying it helped most in rebuilding. European countries ranked 16th: 0.2%.

On the future political makeup of an independent Iraq, a broad majority, 70.4%, want a single Iraq with a central government in Baghdad. 17.6% want an American-style republic. In last place, with 9% support, was the dreaded “fracture” scenario seemingly raised in every major newspaper every day.

Despite all of this, when Iraqis—who get the very same television news we do and watch, according to the poll, almost every day—are asked to rate the way in which the United States and other Coalition Forces have carried out their responsibilities in Iraq, in other words the armies’ competency, only 36% respond positively; 59% negatively. There is no question as to why, with numskulls like this owning the airwaves. I think most observers though, given the information gained when Iraqis are asked to rate their own lives and present their personal views, would conclude that Coalition forces have done an excellent job for ordinary Iraqis.

MORE: Oxblog notes that Iraqi confidence in the abilities of the Iraqi Security Forces has grown.

Posted on December 14, 2005 09:26 AM. Permalink