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Sunday, May 15, 2005

How Many Iraqi War Deaths?

100,000 is a favorite number of anti-war activists. It ostensibly is the number of Iraqi innocents killed since the Iraq War begin. Trouble is, it’s very wrong.

The number comes from the Lancet Study, which reported that 98,000 Iraqi non-militants had been killed. That is incorrect, as Jim Lindgren reminds us. What Lancet actually found was that 98,000 Iraqis had died since Operation Iraqi Freedom began. In a country of 25 million, that isn’t hard to believe. The 98,000 includes asthma, cancer, accidents, car crashes, heart attacks, old age, suicide… The 98,000 includes everything.

Far more meaningful is the Iraq Living Conditions Survey, which estimates the number of civilian casualties at 24,000. It excludes non-War related deaths, and is the proper figure to use in debate.

UPDATE: John Tepperman e-mails in, directing my attention to this post- “Dartblog Distorts Lancet Study”- and adds, “Ouch.” Not quite.

While the Lancet Study does take the difference in pre- and post-war deaths, it is still wrong in terms of magnitude. It still counts deaths not related to war violence. This post rounds up many weeks’ worth of Lancet debunking.

Posted on May 15, 2005 03:17 PM. Permalink